NYC’s Grid in Transition

A historic boost in hydropower and offshore wind will transform NYC’s grid by 2028, as headwinds reshape the pathway to our long-term goals.

Original publication by Urban Green Council • Published March 25, 2026

Reaching NYC’s decarbonization goals, including the net-zero buildings target by 2050 under Local Law 97, will require greening the electricity grid. Given the city’s limited space for large-scale clean energy projects, New York has pursued pathways to connect NYC with Canadian hydropower, upstate renewables and new offshore wind. The good news is that some projects are set to significantly boost NYC’s clean energy supply as soon as this year. Building on this progress will require adapting to a changing landscape.

Near-term projects will transform New York City’s grid mix

NYC’s electricity supply is currently dominated by fossil fuels, with just 20 percent coming from clean, zero-emissions sources that include hydropower, nuclear, solar and wind energy. But two large-scale renewable projects could more than double NYC’s share of clean electricity in the next two years.^[1]Urban Green modeled the potential impacts of new projects on NYC’s grid assuming that CHPE has 1,250 MW of nameplate capacity with a 95 percent capacity factor, and Empire Wind has 810 MW of … Continue reading These include:

• 1,230 MW Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE): Through New York State’s Tier 4 Program, CHPE will deliver clean, consistent hydropower from Québec directly into NYC’s grid. When the project goes live in Spring 2026, Figure 1 shows that CHPE is estimated to meet 20 percent of NYC’s annual electricity needs.

• 810 MW Empire Wind 1: A major offshore wind project off the coast of Long Island, Empire Wind 1, could be completed as early as 2027 and will deliver renewable electricity through the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal into NYC’s grid. Figure 1 shows that the project could support another 7 percent of the city’s electricity needs each year. 

Figure 1

Next steps for New York City face offshore headwinds

Until recently, multiple offshore wind projects were lined up to accelerate NYC’s long-term decarbonization pathway. As the main driver of large-scale renewable deployment, New York State built offshore wind into its Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) targets, which include 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035, 10.5 GW of distributed solar by 2030 and 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2040.^[2]In April 2022, the New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) increased the state’s distributed solar goal from 6 GW by 2025 to 10 GW by 2030. In April 2025, the PSC approved an additional … Continue reading

The state is already on track to meet its distributed solar goal, which has been such a success that proposed legislation would nearly double that target to 20 GW by 2035. Utility-scale solar and onshore wind have also made major progress, primarily upstate.^[3]12% of statewide generation today comes from land-based wind and solar. And together with the success of CHPE, Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind, there’s been real progress.

But offshore wind development lags behind state targets. Progress towards the state’s offshore wind goal stalled after contracts and awards for several projects were cancelled. And new offshore wind is unlikely in the near term due to political and economic circumstances that include a pause of federal leases and permits, inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints.

The state of offshore wind leaves New York City with an uncertain long-term energy outlook.

Figure 2

The future of NYC’s grid transformation

It’s clear that more work is needed to decarbonize the rest of NYC’s grid, especially as electricity consumption grows over time. Future electricity use projections range widely and depend on many assumptions, but one authoritative estimate is from the New York ISO’s baseline scenario, which shows a 40 percent increase for NYC by 2050.^[4]The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) projects increases in electric energy use from new data centers, building electrification and other sources. NYISO’s 2025 Load & Capacity Data … Continue reading

New offshore wind remains NYC’s most impactful and reliable source of large-scale renewable energy to power a decarbonized grid. As Figure 3 shows, revisiting 5 GW of cancelled projects that were set to serve NYC—Beacon Wind, Attentive Energy One and Community Offshore Wind—would make the biggest strides toward shifting the city’s grid mix away from fossil fuels.^[5]Beacon Wind’s contract with NYSERDA was terminated on January 22, 2024, however, developer JERA Next BP will retain ownership of the project’s lease area and may “wait for a more favorable … Continue reading ^[6]Urban Green estimated the impact of 5,000 MW of combined capacity from Beacon Wind, Attentive Energy One and Community Offshore Wind on NYC’s grid with a 46 percent capacity factor. The sector has proven energy security, economic and job benefits, and although goals are delayed, the 2025 State Energy Plan models 5 to 7 GW of offshore wind deployed by 2040.^[7] The 2025 State Energy Plan models 5 to 7 GW of offshore wind added between 2025 and 2040 in two variants of its Additional Action Scenario, which serves as the Energy Plan’s core planning case … Continue reading While we can’t count on new projects in the near term, we must keep offshore wind in New York’s sights long-term. 

In the meantime, there are meaningful actions the city, state and industry can take to keep moving toward a net-zero NYC grid as electricity use grows: 

• Lean into distributed solar: In 2016, NYC set a citywide goal of 1,000 MW of solar by 2030. With 688 MW installed as of 2025, Figure 3 shows how the remaining 312 MW would benefit the city’s grid mix. But given solar’s obvious success, we are not tapping into its full potential citywide—imagine, for example, how solar on over 800,000 single family NYC roofs might transform the grid further. With the state considering doubling down on its distributed solar goals, the city should too.^[8]Urban Green estimated the impact of adding 312 MW of distributed solar capacity to NYC’s grid with a 12 percent capacity factor.

• Expand transmission infrastructure: New York’s Tale of Two Grids remains a core challenge, and NYC lacks access to abundant solar and onshore wind in the rest of the state. The Clean Path New York transmission project would have connected NYC to more than 3,400 MW of upstate renewables, but was cancelled in November 2024 due to increased project costs. Revisiting this or exploring other transmission projects to connect with upstate renewables is crucial for NYC’s grid mix long-term.

• Increase energy storage: Distributed and large-scale energy storage can limit strain on the grid at peak times, make renewable energy more dispatchable and reduce the need to build out additional renewables. The proposed 316 MW Ravenswood Generating Station Battery Storage Project in Queens would store electricity sufficient to power 250,000 homes for eight hours. More projects like this are critical on the path to NYC’s clean grid.

While future electricity needs are uncertain, here is one example of how NYC’s grid mix could change if we revisit the three previously selected offshore wind projects that could have served the city, and assume NYISO’s baseline scenario of 40 percent growth in electricity use by 2050:

Figure 3

NYC’s grid is indeed in transition, with a major down payment on our clean energy future arriving soon. Future electricity demand is uncertain and shaped by many shifting factors like building efficiency and demand management. What is certain is that as electricity needs grow, fully decarbonizing the grid will require sustained momentum—to keep the city’s climate goals within reach and ensure affordable, clean energy for all New Yorkers.